The Nexus of 2024

Microsoft 2008: Where are the opportunities?

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by

jon
in

Yeah, I don’t work there any more, and I’m practicing saying “they” instead of “we”, but I still think that Microsoft’s situation is extremely interesting from a strategy perspective. So as a companion to Mini’s What’s going well?, MSFTextrememakeover’s Will this dog ever hunt again, Joe Wilcox’s Definitive, unsolicited advice, Slashdot’s Microsoft’s biggest threat, and no doubt a jillion other posts, I figured I’d start up a thread specifically on the topic of opportunities for Microsoft in the upcoming year.

To kick things off, I’ve highlighted a few I think are particularly compelling: put the user truly in control of their information, make Live the best front end to the network-of-networks, and abandon DRM — it’s too late for that to help Vista, but think about the effects on Zune and Windows 7.0 “now DRM-free”. Discussion of those is welcome, as are other ideas. And please try to keep the focus on the opportunities; of course there are plenty of things wrong, but the threads elsewhere are already covering those.

Comments

8 responses to “Microsoft 2008: Where are the opportunities?”

  1. jon Avatar
    jon

    Put the user truly in control of information being tracked about them by Microsoft’s advertising platform and social networking systems. Yes, this requires a providing real opt-out from advertising tracking; as ad blockers become easier and easier to use, advertisers won’t be getting any useful impressions from those users anyhow, so it’s not really a loss. It’s a rare moment where Microsoft has a major perception advantage — and Google (with Reader) and Facebook (with Beacon) continue to show disdain for users’ privacy. On the social networking side, studies consistently show that in the US over 20% of the users already care enough about privacy to do something about it, and as data breaches and privacy invasions continue to get front page news — and potentially become political issues — the number will only increase. And in the EU, where privacy is valued even more, this is a great antidote to anti-Microsoft *and* anti-US-imperialism sentiments.

    Reply
  2. jon Avatar
    jon

    Make Live the best front end to the “network-of-networks” by providing both a browser experience and rich extensible clients that lets people get to all their mail/PM, IM, friends, contacts, photos, videos, and discussions no matter where they’re hosted — and provides a good offline experience as well. Microsoft has several natural advantages here, including more viable social networks of its own than any of its competitors (Zune, XBox Live, Technet, Channel9/on10, Spaces, …), very reusable technology in OneNote and SSE, and some MSR magic. While the lack of standards and open access makes things more difficult in some cases, there are plenty of situations where it’s largely a solved problem. By focusing on design up front in this new area, this is also a great chance for Microsoft to break the shackles of the (incredibly valuable, but constraining) installed base for its existing products — and show that the closed, secretive Apple model isn’t the only approach to design.

    Reply
  3. jon Avatar
    jon

    Abandon DRM — and watch market perceptions of Zune change overnight. Yeah, okay, it’s too bad that Yahoo! and Amazon and even Apple started moving in that direction first; but hey, Microsoft prides itself on being a fast follower — the writing’s on the wall The writing’s on the wall (“3 down, 1 to go”) and now would be a really good time. It’s too late for this to help Vista, but picture the reactions to “Windows 7, now DRM-free” — and the accompanying release of Windows Live Media Player which allows people in countries with less draconian legislation than the DMCA to extend it with modules that break others’ DRM, and turn it into the “record player that plays everybody records” that Cory Doctorow talked about 3 1/2 years ago. Sure, the recording industry might sue Microsoft; so what? At worst, Microsoft would dip into its bank account for a few billion dollars for a settlement … the money’s not doing them any good, and talk about your marketing bang for the buck!

    Reply
  4. blob Avatar
    blob

    There has never been any lack of opportunities for Microsoft. There are just plagued by this horrible desease – No balls!

    Why couldnt they be the first ones with the Zune? they were chasing Google.

    Now they are chasing Apple.

    Here is a couple of simple thought experiments –

    if MSN or Live were an independent company would they still be around? Would they be paying those Windows Server licenses to fuel the data centers if they were burning VC money?

    if Zune was an independent company would they be shipping a 2 year old clone of the market leader? Would they still be around?

    Where is the needed discipline needed to make such ventures successful come from? from within?

    Reply
  5. jon Avatar
    jon

    oh please.

    once again: this thread is about where the opportunities are going forward.

    thank you.

    and … happy new year!

    Reply
  6. Marc Dencker Avatar
    Marc Dencker

    2008 is the year of the truth and that will have to shown by execution

    – make silverlight and popfly shine
    – show that entertainment will be profitable (xbox/zune)
    – show that live will be profitable (advertising)
    – show marketshare growth of search and other live properties
    success of windows 2008, sql2008 and Visual Studio 2008 as well as continued success of vista and office 2007

    I think they will fire on all cilinders and 2008 wil be a break out year for MSFT (company and stock)

    the real difficulty lies in 2009/2010 where they have to show continued success and a significant improved capability to deliver timely and high quality new versions of windows and office

    in a company the size of MS it takes more than launch of ideas for them to show promise as well as impact on earnings.
    2009 will be the year of Healthcare and business software for Microsoft.

    Reply
  7. bill Avatar
    bill

    One question that Microsofties should look for before shipping anything – will I love this thing? Will I be willing to spend my own money on this? (no not the company store discount).

    I think a change in atitude would be helpful too. I notice comments like, taking at random from this thread:

    “show that live will be profitable”

    In the spirit of another comment above (make silverlight and popfly shine),
    I think it should be “show that live will be great”… profits will follow if you make it great.

    Those are keys to exploiting the opportunities that are there. They also need to get rid of the we’ll get it right in version 3.

    Peace.

    Reply
  8. Liminal states » Archive » Four out of four ain’t bad: Sony BMG to throw in towel on DRM

    […] As somebody who lobbied Microsoft for years to shift their DRM stance (I wrote a “BillG ThinkWeek paper” a few years ago called Why Microsoft should abandon consumer DRM) it’s great to see this shift — and it’s exciting to see companies like Amazon and eMusic take advantage of the opportunities, although of course Microsoft has so many natural advantages in this area that it’s not too late for them. […]

    Reply

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